Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $104,691$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.31 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,709.4}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(101,709.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,541$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(799 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,413.7}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 39.9)}}\) (asimptote \(6,413.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,313$ on 2020-05-08

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $135,569$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{135,321.6}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 28.8)}}\) (asimptote \(135,321.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,689$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(368 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,879.3}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 29.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,879.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $45,484$ on 2020-05-08

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,436$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.82 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,182.6}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(16,182.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $245$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(35.3 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{241.2}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 24.7)}}\) (asimptote \(241.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,962$ on 2020-05-08

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,793$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(184 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20,274.0}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 64.3)}}\) (asimptote \(20,274.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $174$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(3.64 \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(8.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{367.7}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 51.0)}}\) (asimptote \(367.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,782$ on 2020-05-08

Cyprus⮸

Population $1,207,359$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $891$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(152 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{871.0}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 28.1)}}\) (asimptote \(871.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(5.88 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14.9}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 12.0)}}\) (asimptote \(14.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $476$ on 2020-05-08

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,208$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(33.2 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,367.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 96.6)}}\) (asimptote \(48,367.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $47$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.07 \times 10^{0.040t}\) (doubling rate \(7.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58.2}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 27.2)}}\) (asimptote \(58.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,695$ on 2020-05-08

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $35,432$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(525 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,463.1}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 52.9)}}\) (asimptote \(54,463.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $229$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(25.7 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{288.9}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 30.5)}}\) (asimptote \(288.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $26,083$ on 2020-05-08

Philippines⮸

Population $109,581,078$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,463$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,829.0}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 33.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,829.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $696$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(65.9 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{714.4}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 33.7)}}\) (asimptote \(714.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,033$ on 2020-05-08

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Thailand recovered 89%
Korea, South recovered 87%
Uzbekistan recovered 60%
Israel recovered 49%
Turkey recovered 44%
Malaysia recovered 40%
Japan recovered 17%
Georgia recovered 11%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,976$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(4.84 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(100.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,408.7}{1 + 10^{-0.092 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,408.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,637$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,367.5}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 27.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,367.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $346$ on 2020-05-08

Thailand⮸

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,000$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(881 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,919.6}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 19.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,919.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $55$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(22.2 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54.3}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 10.3)}}\) (asimptote \(54.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $161$ on 2020-05-08

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,840$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(4.95 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,372.7}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 15.1)}}\) (asimptote \(10,372.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $256$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(55.6 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{259.5}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 32.7)}}\) (asimptote \(259.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,016$ on 2020-05-08

Uzbekistan⮸

Population $33,469,203$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,325$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(295 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,236.0}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 25.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,236.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(3.95 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 10.0)}}\) (asimptote \(11.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $540$ on 2020-05-08